Wednesday, February 11, 2004

Iraq cost speedbump - Maybe it's the fluctuation in the value of the dinar?

The AP does the numbers. Via AP wire.

Pentagon: 3 Months in Iraq Cost $14B
WASHINGTON - The ongoing war in Iraq cost about $4 billion in September, spiked to $7 billion in October and hit just under $3 billion in November, the Pentagon said Wednesday in its latest report on how much the military operation costs.

That amounted to roughly $14 billion spent on U.S. military operations in Iraq over the three-month period late last year, the latest figures available, said Dov Zakheim, the Pentagon's chief financial official.

He said analysts were trying to determine why the costs spiked in October.

Officials previously had said the occupation of Iraq is costing $1 billion a week.

Zakheim also sought to allay concerns, expressed by top military chiefs to a congressional committee Tuesday, that the Pentagon would run out of money to finance the efforts.

The Iraq war and occupation, along with the ongoing operations in Afghanistan, are being paid for through supplemental spending bills that are approved by Congress outside of the regular budget process.

Already, Congress has approved $166 billion for those operations. The Pentagon has said it does not expect the Bush administration to seek another spending bill until January 2005, but the chiefs of the Army, Air Force and Marine Corps suggested Tuesday that money will run out by the end of September.

Zakheim said Wednesday that the military can fill the gap by borrowing money from other operations and maintenance accounts. This causes some repairs and maintenance work to be delayed, but Zakheim said this would not lead to permanent problems if a supplemental spending bill were approved by the following spring.

Why wait? Zakheim said the Pentagon wanted to see how events in Iraq unfold this year before deciding how much money it will need.

He denied the suggestion that the Bush administration was waiting until after the November elections to prevent the cost from becoming a political issue.


SPECULATION:

It's likely that the occupation is really costing on the order of $1.4 billion per week. I've worked at some firms and have seen firsthand how it's possible to fudge the numbers over a quarter or so in order to work a seemingly anomalous event into the ongoing profit and loss statement. I think this is what we're ultimately going to see in Iraq.

END SPECULATION

So, Dov doesn't think a war is a political issue? WTH? Wars are amongst the most political of all enterprises a State can enter into. Of course now Dov is the one 'playing politics.' Bad Dov.

Wars, being amongst the ultimate political expression are stubborn to reveal their true costs. They are notorious for going 'over budget.' This is because of two reasons. The first being that no one -- even at this stage in the occupation -- can open a spreadsheet program and say, "Yup. It's going to cost us $380,170,012,912.82 to do this." The second being that it's never politically advantageous to have your economic team attempt to paint a true cost of conducting a war and subsequent fallout. "Only $500 billion? Hell, yeah. That's a no-brainer. Let's do it."

War not a political issue. Preposterous.

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