Ebola Broken Record, and Climate Change

I will be updating my ebola cases and fatalities chart in 10 days. Until the worldwide response starts to have some success in lowering the case growth rate, the chart is going more vertical when case rate to time are tabulated. The 550K cases by the end of January 2015 seems unfathomable at present, but unless the trendline is broken..well, it certainly could occur.

This seems a very plausible model of the spread of ebola from East Africa to West africa. I would state that it is the model for the geographical spread of ebola disease, but much more wotk needs to be done before this can be firmly stated.

In related news, there are potentially many as yet unknown 'zoonotic' diseases that either have yet to infect humans, or have been mis-diagnosed--if diagnosed at all. This reminds me of the 'pre-history' of Marburg virus. There were doubtless cases around Mt. Elgon prior to Europeans naming the virus after a load of infected Grivet monkeys caused human infection in Marburg, Germany.

Emerging and re-emerging viruses are likely to be with humans as long as humans and viruses continue to inhabit this blue rock. As the density of humanity continues, and hence moves further into tropical areas with sufficient density to sustain chains of contagion, new and strange maladies are likely to find us a somewhat suitable host.

Okay, enough fun stuff..

MTV affirms climate change and gives one ammunition ro use against climate change deniers. It seems like lots of the same old stuff to me, but it may help others. Perhaps a few months ago I read in the 'comments' section of a good piece on global climate change that the US state of Indiana just went through a very cold winter negating mountains of data supporting climate change. *huge eyeroll*

Climate is a complex issue. For instance, while Arctic sea ice continues to shrink, Antarctic sea ice levels are on the increase. Of course sea ice does not effect sea levels in a really substantive way. Sea ice does affect albedo(reflectivity), but I cannot comment on just how much impact this has on micro-climates or macro-climate. I am curious to know at least some of the mathematical underpinnings, but I have nothing today. In the West Antarctic interior, glacier melt--which most certainly effects sea levels--is in "Catastrophic Collapse".

Read Real Climate. Know Real stuff. Gavin Schmidt knocks down the arguments by analogy in this post. Gavin's Wikipedia Page

I hope to live long enough to see anthropogenic climate change deniers tossed in with moon landing deniers, Holocaust deniers, etc. I am not taking bets.

Truly sad...Sure, it is yet another ebola post

A team of health care workers in Guinea were murdered as they tried to raise awareness about the deadly Ebola virus.

I know that ebola has a huge stigma issue surrounding it, but this seems way over the top for human behavior. There is much fear and loathing in the ebola stricken areas of West Africa.

Bloomberg is reporting that that the worst case scenario for ebola cases in West Africa could be more than 500,000 cases.

That is very, very bad.

This is far, far worse.

From a tin-foil hat website: VIROLOGIST: 'IT’S TOO LATE, EBOLA WILL KILL 5 MILLION’The article cites Canadian researchers as stating that that "the virus has likely gone airborne."

Surely this can take place under specific conditions. In Reston, VA it was strongly suspected that ebola Reston(EBOVR) was at least partly transmitted via the aerosol route. Since EBOVR is almost a twin to EBOV(formerly ebola Zaire), it doesn't take a virologist to at least wonder that the aerosol transmission route is at least possible.

That is one of the problems with emergent diseases. 40 years of study with--until now--relatively few cases does not produce enough data to state things like transmission routes in all situations with authority. Of course the virus is under selective pressure as well. This is not a directed event.

Ebola could almost as easily mutate into a form asymptomatic to humans, as becoming more transmissible. The selective differences may be quite small, but a drift towards higher transmissibility would lead to the virus replicating more easily. Hence, those virii that randomly came equipped with a higher transmissibility rate would tend to out-multiply in the host organisms and lead to higher and higher levels of itself. Natural selection in action. Not the most cheery thought on a Friday, but one that bears keeping in the back of one's head.

I am deeply curious as to what those 395 mutations found thus far in the current outbreak are capable. Anyone can do selective pressure algebra. The key is to have a clear sense of the value of one trait versus another. I cannot give you those figures for ebola virus, as I do not know them. It is really this simple. Sure I picked the Peppered Moth example. It is a good one as the two colorforms pre-existed the selective pressure(s). Population genetics are--in this case--very simple.

For further reading, I recommend Sean B. Carroll's The Making of the Fittest: DNA and the Ultimate Forensic Record of Evolution. Carroll lays out some simple examples of selective pressures, and the math is nothing more than basic algebra. It is not like attempting to digest S. Wright, R.A. Fisher and/or J.B.S. Haldane's mathematical treatments that really ushered in the 'modern synthesis.' Sean B. Carroll's other fabulous book: Endless Forms Most Beautiful: The New Science of Evo Devo is a must read. I should note that I hold S.B. Carroll in the highest regard. While he is not a prolific author, his books enable most any curious reader to peer into very modern biology with wit and insight; and he never talks down to his audience. I have read four of his six works published for the non-scientist, and he never fails to educate and amuse. His books are, if anything, too quickly over!

Why I was out, the US responds to ebola

Finally. The US is committing 3,000 US troops to the beleaguered region and just what the US military will likely be doing in West Africa. Before anyone yells that I chose a 'liberal rag' to link to with a synopsis of just what the US troops will be doing to combat(pardon the pun) the ebola epidemic, I looked at a dozen or so pieces, and this one was by far the most detailed and hence likely to be the most accurate.

Meanwhile, the WHO is asking for roughly a billion additional dollars to keep the ebola epidemic in West Africa contained to 'tens of thousands'.

Recall my case rates at varying levels of individual contagion rates? Well, a mathematical epidemologist is stating that the current Ebola outbreak 'out of all proportion' and severity cannot be predicated. Since the piece is meant to be openly shared, here it is--line breaks added manually:

Contact: Tom Frew
a.t.frew@warwick.ac.uk
44-024-767-75910
University of Warwick
@warwickuni

Ebola outbreak 'out of all proportion' and severity cannot be predicated

A mathematical model that replicates Ebola outbreaks can no longer be used to ascertain the eventual scale of the current epidemic, finds research conducted by the University of Warwick.

Dr Thomas House, of the University's Warwick Mathematics Institute, developed a model that incorporated data from past outbreaks that successfully replicated their eventual scale.

The research, titled Epidemiological Dynamics of Ebola Outbreaks and published by eLife, shows that when applying the available data from the ongoing 2014 outbreak to the model that it is, according to Dr House, "out of all proportion and on an unprecedented scale when compared to previous outbreaks".

Dr House commented: "If we analyse the data from past outbreaks we are able to design a model that works for the recorded cases of the virus spreading and can successfully replicate their eventual size. The current outbreak does not fit this previous pattern and, as a result, we are not in a position to provide an accurate prediction of the current outbreak".

Chance events, Dr House argues, are an essential factor in the spread of Ebola and many other contagious diseases. "If we look at past Ebola outbreaks there is an identifiable way of predicting their overall size based on modelling chance events that are known to be important when the numbers of cases of infection are small and the spread is close to being controlled".

Chance events can include a person's location when they are most infectious, whether they are alone when ill, the travel patterns of those with whom they come into contact or whether they are close to adequate medical assistance.

The Warwick model successfully replicated the eventual scale of past outbreaks by analysing two key chance events: the initial number of people and the level of infectiousness once an epidemic is underway.

"With the current situation we are seeing something that defies this previous pattern of outbreak severity. As the current outbreak becomes more severe, it is less and less likely that it is a chance event and more likely that something more fundamental has changed", says Dr House.

Discussing possible causes for the unprecedented nature of the current outbreak, Dr House argues that there could be a range of factors that lead it to be on a different scale to previous cases;

"This could be as a result of a number of different factors: mutation of virus, changes in social contact patterns or some combination of these with other factors. It is implausible to explain the current situation solely through a particularly severe outbreak within the previously observed pattern".

In light of the research findings and the United Nations calling for a further $1bn USD to tackle the current outbreak, Dr House says that "Since we are not in a position to quantify the eventful scale of this unprecedented outbreak, the conclusion from this study is not to be complacent but to mobilise resources to combat the disease."

Link to study .pdf You will need to remember some maths, and plug in some new variables to wrap your head firmly around the equations.

Since I started following and commenting on the outbreak, I have attempted to share with my gentle reader only the best articles, opinion pieces, and models on the weblog. In my social circles--and more than a couple of people I see on at a weekly basis have field experience in other disease outbreaks--I am seen as the local database concerning the ebola epidemic. I can perhaps appreciate the models better than my medical friends, but I know nothing of what must be populations in literally morbid fear. Nurse Lauren(US Army Sgt.) was in Afghanistan prior to 09.11.2001 aiding in the fight against a tick-borne fever: Crimean-Congo hemorrhagic fever. The fear among the people was extreme. One can only imagine how much more dire things are in--say, Monrovia--today.

New ebola case rate based on a new model, an ebola recap, and EEE in New Hampshire.

The Ebola epidemic affecting West Africa is predicted to last a further 12 to 18 months, according to U.S. scientists. Things are looking ungood. Sorry about the source. If you cannot be bothered to proofread your headline, that leaves much else suspect. I will look for confirmation form other sources. Here is the source where much of the new data was mined. 20k cases per month? I didn't know that Thomas Geisbert was considered an ebola expert. He used to be an electron microscopist at USAMRIID.

I saved all the NYT stuff locally. I am a paid subscriber, so let us hope that I do not get fined--or worse--for having a full local copy of the piece for reference.

That's the ebola recap.

New Hampshire now has two confirmed cases of human EEE.

The news comes just three days after health officials confirmed the second human case of EEE in New Hampshire; that person lives in Hopkinton. An adult in Conway also tested positive for EEE last month.

The New Hampshire Department of Health and Human Services has also confirmed EEE infection in six mosquito batches and a mule this season. So far, there has been no indication of the West Nile virus in New Hampshire.

Infected mosquitoes can transmit EEE to humans through bites. The species testing positive in Portsmouth primarily feeds on birds, but will occasionally bite humans.

EEE can create symptoms including fever, headache, stiff neck and sore throat. Severe cases can cause significant brain damage or death. There is no human vaccine or cure for EEE, making the rare but dangerous disease difficult to treat, but there are ways to prevent bites from infected mosquitoes.

It is likely that there are many many more mosquitoes in NH that are carrying the virus. It is troubling that this being a state where outdoor activities are the rule that permethrin is not the go to agent to repel most insects and those small evil arachnids we call ticks. I had 40% DEET applied to my brush boots minutes(say 5) before a tick ambled right across the toe of my boot. Since I started using permethrin as my personal "bug" repellent, I have had no issues with ticks, mosquitoes, or anything else. I do not apply it to my skin. My outdoor gear gets dosed and allowed to dry before use. Permethrin lasts through a couple of washings, and for at least six weeks in tick central.