Friday, February 13, 2004

I'm going to try and tie a few things together. Bear with me.

Tonight's Lou Dobbs Poll asks the following:

LOU DOBBS TONIGHT QUICKVOTE

Are you a supporter of:

1) Free trade
2) Fair and balanced trade
3) Protectionism

( Fox News: take note of the use of "Fair and Balanced™" )

I have a pretty good working understanding of what both, "Free trade" and "Protectionism" are, but what exactly is "Fair and balanced trade?"

Is that a scenario where all trade barriers are equal, and everyone worldwide is paid an equal sum for work produced? Sort of bringing everyone to the same economic status level? At present this would mean a large drop in the standard of living for the majority of U.S. workers. If I understand this correctly, some 84% of respondents opted for this choice.

I'm sure that respondent's really mean that they want their own situation to be "Fair and balanced." An odd position.

I'm certain that Indian's and the Chinese think globalisation, by and large, is a positive thing. Water has to find its own level. If all workers are placed on an even basis, it is the U.S. and other countries with currently high economic standards of living that will suffer. Not India. Not China.

Here is an interesting comment Alan Greenspan made to Congress yesterday:

"It's not as though Chinese or Indian software engineers ... are always going to be at a very significant (wage) differential. Because of the very large numbers of them, it'll be for a while, but eventually the gap will close."

I think that this is more of a statement of faith from the FRB Chair than anything. The truth is that no one knows how the future of technology is going to take shape. If more engineers are required, then it stands to reason that Asia is likely going to be able to hold employment costs down into the foreseeable future.

There will be many more engineers entering the workforce in India, Singapore, China, South Korea, and you can add to this list as other countries come up on the curve into the future. It is not unreasonable to say that for the foreseeable future, Asia will continue to siphon off jobs from the West. Of course this phenomenon did not start with engineering jobs, nor will it end here. If it's a job where data can be sent via the internet, it's likely that job may be a target to be done offshore.

As standards, and wages climb in one area, another area will be ready to absorb jobs from India, for instance. I do not see this as any kind of temporal issue as far as the American workforce is concerned. I see it as a more or less permanent condition of the result of globalisation.

I am not as sanguine as Chairman Greenspan.

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