Sunday, November 06, 2005

Another Day, Another Poll
This one via ABS News

Flashy title: "Poll: Issues Favor Dems in 2006 Elections"

Then we get to the issues, and there is some odd editorial mixed in with the results. First, the results:
Opportunity is there for the Democrats: Capitalizing on George W. Bush's troubles, the party has a 12-point advantage over the Republicans in trust to handle the nation's main problems, and it leads in nine of 10 individual issues, with some huge gains from three years ago. In the tenth -- Bush's trademark, handling terrorism -- the Democrats run even.

Sampling, data collection and tabulation for this poll were done by TNS.

Indeed, 55 percent of Americans in this ABC News/Washington Post poll say they'd like to see the Democrats take control of Congress in 2006. And if the election were today, registered voters would favor the Democrat in their congressional district by 52-37 percent.

That 15-point margin is numerically the biggest for the Democrats since an ABC/Post poll in September 1984 (they ultimately lost 14 seats), although about the same as a 14-point Democratic lead in one poll in 1996 (when they gained nine).


Okay, great. Then there is this crown jewel of journalistic insight: "The Democrats' advantage on issues extends to some surprising areas -- Iraq and the economy, for example -- and show striking gains from late 2002."

Excuse me? This comes as a surprise to whom exactly? A question that will go unanswered for now.

Onward! To the charts!


Which Party Do You Trust to Handle...
Democrats Republicans
Economy 56% 34%
Social Security 56 29
Education 55 32
Health Care 54 29
Taxes 48 38
Iraq 48 37
Federal Budget 48 34
Gas Prices 47 26
Terrorism 42 42
Ethics 42 36


So does their edge in attributes: They hold a 10-point lead, 50-40 percent, as the
party that "better represents your personal values."

Party Attributes
Democrats Republicans
Is more open to ideas of political moderates 60% 24%
Is more concerned with needs of people like you 56 33
Better represents your values 50 40
Has stronger leaders 35 51
As always, I left the tables as found. No fancy formatting.

Okay, so the GOP is viewed as having stronger leaders, whilst this stronger leadership has fallen flat on virtually every issue? I think I have the interpretation right.

[Short digression]

If you've recently filled out a survey at a major retailer, the survey typically starts off with a general question about your shopping experience. Then the survey progresses to the specifics of your shopping experience. Then - and this is the important bit - the survey brings you back to the general question about your shopping experience after having qualified you by asking you specifics about your experience.

The qualifying questioning may cause inconsistencies between a shopper's initial response and their latter one. This provides the surveyor with a more accurate picture of your shopping experience than asking a simple series of random questions.
[/Short digression]

I'm certain that I'm the only one that finds it ironic that: GOP leaders - Great! GOP policy - Asinine!

With polls, it's the trend that matters. That said, if the GOP can't pull out of their tailspin, it looks pretty good for 'the other party' in 2006.

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