Sunday, April 11, 2004

The American Muslim Vote

This data is about a year old, but I think one can still draw conclusions from the data. This is especially true given the recent, ongoing violence in Iraq.

This study was limited to Detroit area Muslims. Potentially, this is political dynamite, as Michigan is one the hotly contested "battleground states" in the upcoming elections.

The study, conducted by Ihsan Bagby, a professor at the University of Kentucky, has only just released the findings.

Essentially, Professor Bagby's findings are that whilst traditional Muslims have shunned politics in the past, they are now motivated by what they see as civil rights issues to become more politically active.

Professor Bagby writes:
"A couple of decades ago, Muslims were, for the most part, internally focused and had very few involvements at any level [with civic life].

"Starting in the 1980s, the Muslim community, as it matured and became a lot stronger, started to become more involved."
The 1300 surveyed Muslims, when asked about their religious beliefs were fairly evenly divided between those who took a more traditional approach to Islam, and those who believed a more liberal interpretation should be interpreted in a modern-day context. Only 8 percent said they followed ultra-conservative(fundamentalist) teachings. Curiously, the 8 percent closely follows those Christians in the U.S who regard themselves as fundamentalist Christians.

But I digress.

Nearly two-thirds of those who called themselves "most conservative" Muslims, strongly agreed that they should participate in U.S. politics.

Moving on to the bigger picture, 78 percent of all respondents said they "strongly support" political involvement. Additionally, 73 percent said Muslims should "work more closely with non-Muslims" on community service projects.

Concerning politics, not surprisingly, respondents ranked civil rights as the most important for American Muslims followed by education and U.S. foreign policy. Pre-9/11, American policy in the Mid-East had been the defining issue for the American Muslim community.

Since the survey was conducted just after the invasion of Iraq, we get to the potential bombshell. A full 85 percent of respondents disapproved of the wat Presindent Bush "was running the country." About 66 percent were registered to vote.

Note: I got some of this data from an AP wire article. The balance of the data was mined from information at Zogby International.

What does this mean? I would say that there is a strong possibility that the great majority of American Muslims -- whose real numbers are hard to come by -- will be voting for someone other than Bush in November.

If there are, as is widely reported 7 million Muslims in the U.S., this could have a profound effect on the outcome the presidential election. If, as is otherwise reported, there are as few as 1.5 million, the effect will naturally be less pronounced. See this article to see the wide variance in American Muslim population.

I'm going to leave it at this: The American Muslims are a voting force, but just how much of a force depends on numbers that there is no real consensus on. How's that for taking a stand ? :)

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