Yeah, I'm at work.

I was just looking at the U.S. Department of Labor's weekly benefits claim report.

Market mavens watch the moving average rather than the week to week volatility that is influenced by factors from holidays to weather.

The hard number is 341,000 newly jobless -- that is the number of people that actually filed for unemployment.

The more closely watched four week moving average stands at roughly 346,000. A decline of 6,750..a neglible number.

The other big data set that is surely causing hand-wringing amongst our sitting president is that the number of those continuing to receive unemployment benefits fell a mere 41,000, while the four week moving average stands at 3.09 million, a decline of 12,250.

The numbers are kind of dumb. They don't tell us a great deal, in and of themselves. It's the trend that's important, and the trend is that while layoffs are abating in pace, hiring isn't taking place. So, the snapshot is of a labor market that is stagnant.

Again, as noted here in many previous articles, the numbers are far below White House predictions(wishful thinking?).

The other bit of economic data is that The University of Michigan's Index of Consumer Sentiment fell slightly to 94.1 from February's level of 94.4 It's a subscription-only report, but Reuters has the goods.

I've been watching these cycles for a couple of decades -- I'm not that old, just naturally curious -- and this recovery is very different.

The lack of substantial job creation this late into a recovery cycle is uncharted(no pun intended) territory for me. This recovery is in slight danger of reversing. It's not just that large numbers of jobs aren't being created, it's also that those being created show sign of wage deflation.

This raises an unusual specter. Not only are people concerned about their present job situation, but they must also be thinking about the prospect of taking a wage cut upon re-entering the work force.

This where the interplay between numbers and psychology comes into play, and I'm not qualified to make meaningful declarations about this issue.

After tax refund spending is over, a clearer picture may emerge.

Dang, I better go do something :)