GWB has a Blog

I had a hearty chuckle over this one.

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Torture Chuck

More giggles. Job growth in 2004

Here's the actual blog entry:

Leading Economists: Strong Growth, 1.5 Million New Jobs in Store for 2004

According to a survey of 54 leading economists in today's Wall Street Journal (subscription required), 2004 is already shaping up to be a great year for the economy. The forecast calls for steady economic growth and sustained job creation over the next 12 months:

The jobless recovery may need a new nickname in 2004. That's because rising corporate profits and steady economic growth are expected to prompt companies to hire workers more aggressively in the months ahead.
That's the consensus view of 54 economists surveyed by The Wall Street Journal, who as a group believe the U.S. unemployment rate will slowly descend to 5.5% by November. That could translate into more than 1.5 million new jobs in a 12-month period. And while a 5.5% unemployment rate would still be far above the 3.8% rate achieved in April 2000, it would nevertheless represent a notable decline from the 6.4% level reached last summer and could provide a psychological boost to workers and an electoral boost to President Bush.

And even those who were relatively cautious before are calling for sustained growth:

"The outlook is very good in the near term," says Ethan Harris, chief U.S. economist with Lehman Brothers. "You're going to have solid growth." Those are strong words coming from Mr. Harris, who has tilted toward the bears among forecasters. Yet even the most bearish forecasters are now calling for growth of at least 3% in the months ahead, while the biggest bulls say the economy can grow at an annual rate of more than 5% in the months ahead.

According to this data, I see a big oops. Someone forget to do their math. Probably the 'MBA' president.

So Bush's no doubtedly rosy estimates are for 1.5 million new jobs in 2k4. That's not meaningful job growth. It takes ~175,000 new jobs per month to MAINTAIN the employment level. Let's do the math..175,000 X 12 = 2,100,000.

Survey says: Job growth projections for 2k4 do not pass the BS smell test. Expect no employment growth in 2k4.

Link: W's rosefree forecast

You can read Colin Powell's new year's resolution right here.

If you can't wait to read Colin, we offer you this short version: no mention of telling the truth in 2004. Thank god you can count on some things! Glory!