Friday, March 05, 2004

Hey, it's our data, so let's have look.
Nonfarm employment was little changed (+21,000) in February, and the unemployment rate remained at 5.6 percent, the Bureau of Labor Statistics of the U.S. Department of Labor reported today. Employment levels in most of the major industries were little changed over the month.

Unemployment (Household Survey Data)

The number of unemployed persons was 8.2 million in February, and the unemployment rate held at 5.6 percent, seasonally adjusted. Both measures are below their recent highs of June 2003. Unemployment rates for the major worker groups--adult men (5.1 percent), adult women (4.9 percent), teenagers (16.6 percent), whites (4.9 percent), blacks (9.8 percent), and Hispanics or Latinos (7.4 percent)--showed little or no change over the month. The unemployment rate for Asians was 4.7 percent in February, not seasonally adjusted.

Total Employment and the Labor Force (Household Survey Data)

Total employment was down in February to 138.3 million, and the employment-population ratio--the proportion of the population age 16 and older with jobs--declined to 62.2 percent. The ratio was at or near that level for most of 2003. Over the month, the civilian labor force decreased by 392,000 to 146.5million, and the labor force participation rate fell to 65.9 percent.

The number of persons who work part time for economic reasons edged down in February to 4.4 million, seasonally adjusted. This category includes persons who indicated that they would like to work full time but were working part time because their hours had been cut back or because they were unable to find full-time jobs.

About 7.2 million persons (not seasonally adjusted) held more than one job in February. These multiple jobholders represented 5.3 percent of the total employed, down from 5.6 percent a year earlier.

Persons Not in the Labor Force (Household Survey Data)

In February, about 1.7 million persons were marginally attached to the laborforce, about the same as a year earlier. (Data are not seasonally adjusted.) These individuals wanted and were available to work and had looked for a job sometime in the prior 12 months. They were not counted as unemployed, however, because they did not actively search for work in the 4 weeks preceding the survey. There were 484,000 discouraged workers in February, also about the same as a year earlier. Discouraged workers, a subset of the marginally attached, were not currently looking for work specifically because they believed no jobs were available for them. The other 1.2 million marginally attached had not searched for work for reasons such as school or family responsibilities.
So, where did I get this data? The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics

What does it mean? Well, it's bad for Main Street, Wall Street and certainly is a bad omen for a certain resident of 1600 Pennsylvania Ave.

This job report is pretty much across the board terrible when compared to forecasts.

The White House has spun this one like mad.
"Today's jobs report demonstrates the importance of having a president in the White House who is committed to a vigorous job creation agenda of lower taxes, lower health care costs and lower energy costs," said Terry Holt, a spokesman for the Bush/Cheney campaign."
Unfortunately, Mr. Holt doesn't tell us who this person is. Pity that.

The Kerry campaign, not surprisingly, saw a different picture.
"For over three years now, since the start of this recession, George Bush has promised the American people that new jobs are on the way," said John Kerry, the likely Democratic challenger. "But, he's over promised and under-delivered."
Makes for an easy jab, but I see no plan here. Still, this has to be a positive for Kerry.

Here's a sampling of economists' reactions..and you thought that they were without emotion. ;)

"There is only so much longer that this can go on," said Sherry Cooper, chief economist for BMO Nesbitt Burns. "No
question, however, the Bushies must be very nervous."

"We see nothing redeeming in this report," said Drew Matus, an economist for Lehman Brothers. "This is another terribly
dreary number," said Bill Cheney, chief economist for John Hancock Financial.

"Yuck," said Joshua Shapiro, chief economist for MFR.


Josh sums up my feelings pretty well.

I think in all fairness we should give the last word to Secretary of Treasury Snow. It's his economy, his baby if you will, so he's sure to have a keen insight into what's happening here.
"The president's tax cuts are working." -- Treasury Secretary John Snow.
Okay, so maybe "keen insight" was a bit of a stretch, but I'm sure he sees something that all those dismal economists do not.

And yes, Mr. Snow did utter that sentence shortly after the BLS release. I heard him say it, but I can't find a web source. Dang. I'll update it once I do. The rest of the quotes came from my morning mail bag, and from CNBC.

The stock market is pretty flat at present, with the Dow up slightly, and the Nasdaq Comp. losing 7.

Wall Street typically sees these reports differently from Main Street. Weak labor markets make the likelihood of the FMOC raising short term interest rates less likely. So, it's sort of a mixed bag.

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