Thursday, August 07, 2014

Ebola! It just keeps getting worse

See the latest CDC info here.

With case deaths approaching one thousand, this is the worst ebola outbreak to effect humans known to this date.

The CDC has now raised its response level to 'Level One', the highest alert status.

I am trying to find a graph that is as current as today, but cannot find one. If this graph is accurate--and I strongly suspect that it is, as the current outbreak was believed contained in May--then the curve has yet to flatten. Given the somewhat long(up to roughly 22 days) incubation period, it looks like things will get worse before they get better.
Maybe far worse.

As I reported sometime earlier, this ebola strain was first reported to be "Ebola Zaire." Then it was reported to be 97% equivalent to Ebola Zaire. Now I will go on record as stating that this ebola strain indeed seems a newly discovered strain. In addition, it now appears likely that this strain has been cycling in nature in a host or hosts in West Africa until the massive outbreak this year. Of course the likelihood that we will ever determine "patient zero" is quite nearly zero.

One has to wonder about transmissibility of this new strain. Is there an aerosol component in this strain that has been lacking up till now? Or have other natural reservoirs been co-opted by the strain that humans are much more likely to come into contact with? Some of both? Something entirely unexpected? No doubt researchers are working on these--and other--questions even as I type.

This outbreak is certainly different from those since 1976. One would think that in the intervening decades that containment would--all other things being equal--far better today. That is why I have speculated that something about this strain is different. I hope that the answers are fast in coming.

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