Slowdown, ya move too fast

As day number two of two Conference of the Parties (COP 22)United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) begins in less than a day, the delegates have already been told some sobering news. The delegates were told that 2016 is almost certainly going to be the hottest year globally since we apes started being able to measure such things. The press release is from the World Meteorological Organization; and the link is to the body's press release.

With 2016 nearly guaranteed to break the instrumentally measured all-time hottest year(2015 will be downgraded to second hottest..until it's third), some media outlets are parroting this line: 2016 set to break heat record despite slowdown in emissions. This could well be short-term harmful from an ecological stand. If you simply read the headline it seems that "Hey, we're doing great! Not putting as much carbon into the air..terrific!"

The headline is not wrong, but it is misleading. There has been a slowing in the growth of carbon discharged into the atmosphere, but the trajectory is still upward. In one odd AP piece we find this:

"It is far too early to proclaim we have reached a peak," said co-author Glen Peters, a senior researcher at the Center for International Climate and Environmental Research in Oslo. The study, published in the journal Earth System Science Data, says global CO2 emissions from fossil fuels and industry are projected to grow just 0.2 percent this year. That would mean emissions have leveled off at about 36 billion metric tons in the past three years even though the world economy has expanded, suggesting the historical bonds between economic gains and emissions growth may have been severed. "This could be the turning point we have hoped for," said David Ray, a professor of carbon management at the University of Edinburgh, who was not involved with the study. "To tackle climate change those bonds must be broken and here we have the first signs that they are at least starting to loosen."

...and this:

China, which accounts for almost 30 percent of global carbon pollution, pledged to peak its emissions around 2030 as part of the climate pact adopted in Paris last year. Many analysts say China's peak is likely to come much earlier — and may already have occurred.

I would like to believe that, but then I would like to believe in God, too. I need third party evidence. The best evidence is that carbon emissions are up slightly year over year.

The stated goals of the UNFCCC are to keep global temperatures to a 2°C over pre-industrial levels. The linked to piece at the top of this entry shows that the earth is at least at the +1.2° point as of now.

President-elect Donald Trump needs to know that his wacky "clean coal" initiative won't really be clean, and even at that it is projected to cost the global community upwards of 17 trillion dollars to get everyone on board. Wind, solar, nuclear, geothermal, and tidal would likely cost less to implement.

The one(that's ONE) clean coal plant under construction in the US is currently two years behind schedule and $4 billion over budget. Pipe cleaner dream. That was a cruel pre-election trick to have pulled on those in the former coal producing states. "Coal. Clean coal!" - DJ Trump Look at the chart in the link. Some of the greatest job losses in Appalachian coal country occurred under "De-Regulation Ronnie's" reign, and the only real uptick from a vastly lower starting point was during GWB's guiding hand. One has to remember, that graphic is not granular at all. That is all coal related jobs. From janitors to CEOs, they are all likely in there.

One last thing..

Up until now(or nearly now..see last link) the earth has been able to absorb roughly half of the atmospheric carbon we keep putting into the atmosphere. This is NOT the same as total sequestration as there will be a breaking point. The earth has given us a break -- for now. At some point the oceans are going to reach saturation point, and the land won't be able to help. Think of only thing...say, thawing tundra. This already does, and will accelerate the pumping of massive amounts of CO2 into the atmosphere, and enormous amounts of methane. The oceans are already beyond maximum carrying capacity. See how quickly new improved data supersedes old data? The Woods Hole data was from 1.5 years ago. The Nature data was just published today.

I think I'll revisit the declining oceanic carbon sinks tomorrow and add some stuff about COP22 if there is anything new there.