Why I was out, the US responds to ebola

Finally. The US is committing 3,000 US troops to the beleaguered region and just what the US military will likely be doing in West Africa. Before anyone yells that I chose a 'liberal rag' to link to with a synopsis of just what the US troops will be doing to combat(pardon the pun) the ebola epidemic, I looked at a dozen or so pieces, and this one was by far the most detailed and hence likely to be the most accurate.

Meanwhile, the WHO is asking for roughly a billion additional dollars to keep the ebola epidemic in West Africa contained to 'tens of thousands'.

Recall my case rates at varying levels of individual contagion rates? Well, a mathematical epidemologist is stating that the current Ebola outbreak 'out of all proportion' and severity cannot be predicated. Since the piece is meant to be openly shared, here it is--line breaks added manually:

Contact: Tom Frew
a.t.frew@warwick.ac.uk
44-024-767-75910
University of Warwick
@warwickuni

Ebola outbreak 'out of all proportion' and severity cannot be predicated

A mathematical model that replicates Ebola outbreaks can no longer be used to ascertain the eventual scale of the current epidemic, finds research conducted by the University of Warwick.

Dr Thomas House, of the University's Warwick Mathematics Institute, developed a model that incorporated data from past outbreaks that successfully replicated their eventual scale.

The research, titled Epidemiological Dynamics of Ebola Outbreaks and published by eLife, shows that when applying the available data from the ongoing 2014 outbreak to the model that it is, according to Dr House, "out of all proportion and on an unprecedented scale when compared to previous outbreaks".

Dr House commented: "If we analyse the data from past outbreaks we are able to design a model that works for the recorded cases of the virus spreading and can successfully replicate their eventual size. The current outbreak does not fit this previous pattern and, as a result, we are not in a position to provide an accurate prediction of the current outbreak".

Chance events, Dr House argues, are an essential factor in the spread of Ebola and many other contagious diseases. "If we look at past Ebola outbreaks there is an identifiable way of predicting their overall size based on modelling chance events that are known to be important when the numbers of cases of infection are small and the spread is close to being controlled".

Chance events can include a person's location when they are most infectious, whether they are alone when ill, the travel patterns of those with whom they come into contact or whether they are close to adequate medical assistance.

The Warwick model successfully replicated the eventual scale of past outbreaks by analysing two key chance events: the initial number of people and the level of infectiousness once an epidemic is underway.

"With the current situation we are seeing something that defies this previous pattern of outbreak severity. As the current outbreak becomes more severe, it is less and less likely that it is a chance event and more likely that something more fundamental has changed", says Dr House.

Discussing possible causes for the unprecedented nature of the current outbreak, Dr House argues that there could be a range of factors that lead it to be on a different scale to previous cases;

"This could be as a result of a number of different factors: mutation of virus, changes in social contact patterns or some combination of these with other factors. It is implausible to explain the current situation solely through a particularly severe outbreak within the previously observed pattern".

In light of the research findings and the United Nations calling for a further $1bn USD to tackle the current outbreak, Dr House says that "Since we are not in a position to quantify the eventful scale of this unprecedented outbreak, the conclusion from this study is not to be complacent but to mobilise resources to combat the disease."

Link to study .pdf You will need to remember some maths, and plug in some new variables to wrap your head firmly around the equations.

Since I started following and commenting on the outbreak, I have attempted to share with my gentle reader only the best articles, opinion pieces, and models on the weblog. In my social circles--and more than a couple of people I see on at a weekly basis have field experience in other disease outbreaks--I am seen as the local database concerning the ebola epidemic. I can perhaps appreciate the models better than my medical friends, but I know nothing of what must be populations in literally morbid fear. Nurse Lauren(US Army Sgt.) was in Afghanistan prior to 09.11.2001 aiding in the fight against a tick-borne fever: Crimean-Congo hemorrhagic fever. The fear among the people was extreme. One can only imagine how much more dire things are in--say, Monrovia--today.