More about Windows announcements...and the latest ebola stuff

Windows 8.1 Update 1 and some more Windows 9 stuff.

Microsoft post-Ballmer is doing pretty well. Microsoft needs to make a big splash and next week they are likely to do just that. Microsoft has much more to worry about from the Google camp than from Apple. Everyone that is not Google and is in the consumer electronics business has much to be concerned about from the Mountain View group.

I am not certain that 8.1 Update 1 is going to happen. No one is other than those inside the working group. Given the way too slow uptake of Windows 8.1, I would not be greatly surprised if Microsoft dropped the 8.1 update, and offered Win 8 users Windows 9 for free or for a token sum. I had the opportunity to buy Windows 7 Pro DVDs all wrapped up in official Microsoft packaging for $29.99 earlier this week. Even retail there was vendor offering Win 7 64 bit Home for approximately the same price after mail-in rebate but it was kind of a sticky situation. Still, $30 for a full Win OS at retail is not commonly found these days.

I expect Microsoft to do most things correctly when Windows 9 is released.

Ebola, you are up!

MSNBC is now reporting that West African ebola is now an "exponential crisis". The reporter cites the 1.4 million cases as evidence. But it is not evidence. It is the current worst case scenario. Be careful about opeing the link. It is direct to an autoplay video that is very slow to load. I am on a 105mbps connection, and it was still slow to load.

The WHO has released new confirmed ebola fatality numbers, and as of this moment that number is 3,133 confirmed. The report also notes that in excess of 6,500 people have been, or are currently, infected. I will wait until Sep. 30 to update my chart. I am going to use graphing software to make it appear that I know just how to plot things along an x and y axis.

Meanwhile, at the UN....

Tanzanian President Jakaya Kikwete told the general assembly some obvious things. Here is a bit:

"Help Africa, so that the stigma that is developing against the continent because of Ebola is stopped. Reports that people from other parts of the world are shying from visiting Africa will kill the tourism industry, trade and investment to Africa," he said. Amid applause, he observed: "Many people are now shying away from Africa.

Let the UN help tell the world that Africa is a continent of 54 countries and not provinces," he said. He noted that the affected countries are closer to Europe than they are to countries in East Africa such as Tanzania or Kenya. "To cancel travel to Africa because of this is gross injustice," he said.

This is going to be lost on the American public for two reasons. The first is that Joe Average has no real sense of the geographic spans involved, and the second is that when Josephine Average hears the word "ebola" she freezes from fear. It is hoped that the reader of this blog has a much keener sense of the size of Africa, and reasons through the ebola issue rather than experience paralysis due to a reflexive emotional response.

A report from Russia stating that conspiracy "theories" are aiding ebola's spread. Africans are not seeking medical help because of talk that those that enter clinics are being killed by doctors. As a person living in the what is likely the fear ridden Western country, I can easily see how occurs.

The Muslim Hajj is even being affected due to pilgrims from the ebola region of West Africa and Middle East Respiratory Syndrome(MERS). In what might prove fascinating to my fellow US citizens, the Arabs are taking direct cues from the WHO and the CDC. Yes, this is Saudi Arabia that is following the guidelines suggested by the two health organizations. People are people first. A notion that many of my fellow citizens should take to heart.

Until the various vaccines are sorted out, and post-infection drugs are approved this is likely to be the best bet for the ebola infected. A bit:

Technical guidance for experts

Early next week, WHO is issuing new interim guidance on Use of convalescent whole blood or plasma collected from patients recovered from Ebola virus disease for transfusion during outbreaks.

The document is addressed to national health authorities and blood transfusion services.

I am certainly no expert, but I can post bits of pieces found in my RSS feed. Next week should prove interesting on many a front.

WhyPhone 6 "Sringboard edition" gets some love...Windows 9, and ebola.

Apple iPhone 6 ‘Bendgate’ Debate: Consumer Reports Test Finds New iPhones ‘Tougher’ Than Believed. Hey, no one has said that the whyPhone 6 is scrapworthy. The issue is not one a single stress test. It is an issue endemic to most malleable materials. Repeated stressors over time are what kills aluminum cases. If Consumer Reports had really done a good test of the various phones case performance over lower load, repeated stressors, the outcome would most certainly have been different. Apple seems to want to live or die by the aluminum case. This not-real-world test only illustrates that in a single incidence of stress, the whyPhone 6 comes out looking better than the tech press would have one believe. Set the load at 50 lbs of force(whatever that really means) and cycle it ten thousand times. Then you can separate the various phones likelihood od surviving over the longer term. No doubt, someone is performing a test very like the one just described as I type.

There is too much smoke and mirrors surrounding Windows 9 to make any firm statements other than the return of the real Start Menu. Will Cortana be included in the desktop version? If so, all versions, or just some? I am betting that by the end of next week much more will be known. People that write tech articles for mass consumption are all scrambling to discern what Windows 9 will be named. This seems to be missing the point badly. It is all about features that users want, and some that users did not yet know that they wanted. I think Cortana DT is a good example of a possibility.

Everyone that has bashed Windows 8 and/or Windows 8.1 has seemingly done so for strange reasons. I have two PCs with Win 8.1. One I really wanted control over so I installed Classic Shell on that box. Oddly, neither box has ever crashed or even hung on something. One is an i3-2130 based box, so it is no speed demon. The other is an overclocked i5 Ivy Bridge, and that box is really fast. Oh, I put SSDs in both boxes so that is a big reason for the great performance. I bought the i3 machine from Lenovo outlet, and it was absurdly inexpensive. $223.00 with 6 GB of RAM and all the other stuff. I popped in a $50 DX 11 video card, and grabbed an MX100 Crucial drive. All told I have $373 into the machine, and it is plenty fast enough for lots of tasks.

I have to run. Ebola later

.

Home Repairs/Improvements..never leave 'em to a contractor..if you are certain that you can do them properly yourself

This is really far off my beat. I have spent the last few hours installing a storm door. I do this kind of work as it is far removed from how I earn my keep. I do not enjoy repairs/upgrades/replacements nearly as much as gardening, but I do enjoy a job well done. The storm door was a kit of sorts. I had a brand new fiberglass door and that was all. Everything else I sourced from my former life as a hoarder, and I even scored 17 matching windows from the fabulous Joseph. I helped him wire up a house a while back, and he gave me a glass greenhouse kit. Nary a broken pane! Before you run off half-cocked and try your hand at commercial plumbing or some such, you do need to both know lots of different hings, and have the skill sets and tools to properly do the job.

I have a roofing contractor only. Next spring/summer I am going to hire a contractor to do some site work. I am getting a new garage.

I will build it out of a kit I will compile. I know a junk guy that collects pallet racking beams and uprights. I will simply do the CAD work and talk the town officials into rubber stamping my building project.

I really need food and some drink.

I am not anti-contractor. I just feel that anyone that owns properties should be able to do a good amount of the work to maintain said properties themselves.

food. Now.

iWatch watch and your daily ebola update.

A whole bunch of stories here.

One would think that the tech press would simply get over any Apple releases. But no. Given Apple's market capitalization that is not likely to happen anytime soon.

I rarely look for new, shiny stuffs as they appear. I do not want to be an alpha or beta tester for the latest consumer tech junk.

What I am intrigued by are Android L and Windows 9. Both promise to have real benefits rather than simply fancy new clothes.

Just to get a peek into the world of tech wonks this joker states that "Apple is a good monopoly." Seriously. Apple has no monopoly in any product line. There were smartphones before the whyPhone, and tablets before the whyPad. Apple's market share is shrinking in both of these categories as Android outsells the Apple products globally by roughly 10 to 1 in both categories and Android's uptake increases daily. Sure Apple is trying to break into the enterprise market with their partnership with IBM, but IBM's market share is shrinking as well. Google is quite nearly a monopoly. Google is throwing new gadgets out all the time. Android L looks to be killer. Apple has no monopoly in the USA, much less the rest of the planet. The other 6.7 billions of humans are what Google is playing to....betting against Google has not proven to be very smart. Android will be everywhere in five years. Everywhere.

On the ebola frontlines...

The US DoD is to blame for the current outbreak? Ermm, I do not trust any government, but this is just nonsense without extraordinary evidence. The claimant offers up Richard Preston's book The Hot Zone as evidence. West Africans are fearful enough about ebola without wholly unsubstantiated claims being cast about.

More ebola quick hits sans comment:

Ghana Cancels 2014 African Cashew Alliance Expo Over Ebola Concerns

Experimental Ebola vaccines could be ready next year: WHO

WHO advocates blood therapies in search of Ebola treatment

Fujifilm says French Ebola patient is taking its Avigan drug

Ebola is winning

Health worker claims world 'turned a blind eye' on Ebola

and finally.....

Susan Rice: Prepare to fight tomorrow's Ebola(Susan Rice is Obama's national security advisor)

Okay, one more just hit my RSS feed..

Computational model: Ebola could infect more than 1.4 million people by end of January 2015. This isn't especially new, but in case you may have missed it over the past few days..well, there it is.

I am off to toil

I may update later today.

A bite is being taken out of Apple, and weird ebola commentary.

WhyPhone 6 woes continue to grow. Some tech wonk stated that with the whyPhone 6 issues, and assorted ills, Apple is becoming like Microsoft. Not today's Microsoft. M$ products seem to be the least buggy things out there. With a new round of fear over a HUGE Unix vulnerability that is not yet really fixed in any way, Apple's woes continue to mount. Mac OS is essentially a bunch of APIs atop a Unix shell. Sorry about the geek speak. In other words, the pretty Mac OS is not an operating system. The Mac OS is all the pretty and fun stuff riding atop the operating system. All flavors of Unix are vulnerable. That means Macs, Linux, and Apache flavors of Unix are wide open. Uncut Unix is, of course, affected as well. At least 500 million computers worldwide are vulnerable.

I have a little Unix story to share. When I was in grad school, I coded a really simple UI for Unix. All it needed to become the forerunner(alternative?) to Linux was more prettier packaging. If I had known that Linus Torvalds was going to come along and REALLY do the job, I could have been first. I'm 1/4 Finn as well. Oh well. This is no BS story. One of the people I shared my secret project with is now an astrophysics professor at Columbia.

I could get into the POSIX stuff, but that set of protocols wasn't officially cast into IEEE stone until 1988.

So, other than a few papers and some patent royalties, I toil in relative anonymity. I do have that dish of a business as well.

Onward to ebola today....

I believe that this must be an opinion piece, as the business press typically gets hard news conveyed more accurately than mass media. At any rate, here 'tis: Ebola Shot Turned Down by WHO Is Best Hope as Virus Rages

I think it must be a rush job. That headline is dreadful.

This bit is particularly specious:

The sudden sense of urgency for an Ebola vaccine was an about face from a few months earlier when Glaxo contacted the WHO, asking whether its vaccine could help with the outbreak. At that time, the company was told the focus was on containment and the WHO didn’t have a policy for using vaccines in this type of situation. “We’ll get back to you” was the message, said Ripley Ballou, head of Glaxo’s Ebola vaccine program.

No one from the WHO was quoted directly from March of this year. However, an official offered this:

When Glaxo contacted the WHO in March, the vaccine was seen as a “diversion of energy” at a time when it was widely believed the outbreak would be controlled with traditional measures such as contact tracing and safe burials that have helped contain every previous outbreak, said Marie-Paule Kieny, the WHO’s assistant director-general for health systems and innovation.

“We were in a situation where GSK had a vaccine which had been tested in animals, and that was it,” Kieny said in a telephone interview. “It was only then when the situation started to be quite worse, and people understood that we’re not going to make it, that the effort came to a higher level.”

If you read the piece the pharmaceutical companies GlaxoSmithKline Plc and Johnson & Johnson claim that they reached out to the WHO in March of this year. The WHO, in addition to the statement in the blockquote above, claims that the WHO has no process in place for using vaccine prophylaxis. No, the WHO does has the protocols in place for known to be effective in humans vaccines. That is precisely how the scourge of Smallpox was eradicated from nature. What the WHO lacks--and I think that this is prudent--is that the WHO has no procedures in place for jabbing needles into people with drugs that have not undergone human trials.

If you think that the timing of these statements is all too convenient you are not alone. Once the US has offered up nearly a billion dollars to assist in the fight against ebola, the finger pointing starts. Now that the pharma giants have a place to deposit the bill, there is not a moment to spare.

My cynicism here is borne out my personal medical history. I have a partial retinal vein occlusion. The vision in my right eye flatly sucks. I had to almost threaten to kill my medical insurance provider to get the off-label use of an anti-tumor drug(Avastin) approved to treat the blocked vein. I buy health insurance as part of a group of small business owners, and my premiums at the time were roughly $920/mo. I NEVER used the insurance for anything but routine work. My death-by-poorly-wielded-machete worked, and after two weeks I had the first of six injections. Just the 1/30th dose needed for my right eye cost $1,200.00/shot. My retinal specialist called it "surgery" so each shot cost roughly $4,000. I paid 10 percent.

I am not going to state unequivocally that the pharma giants squeezed the WHO for guaranteed payment for their vaccine(s), but pharma's history in this area is not really great.

For a fabulous treatment of this very subject that is refreshingly devoid of hyperbole and tin hattedness, Siddhartha Mukherjee's instant classic: The Emperor of All Maladies: A Biography of Cancer is a must read. It is a must read for any thinking person. The book is the best on medicine I have ever read, and perhaps one of the top ten non-fiction books I have read. Ir would definitely make the top twenty.

Speaking of tin hats, at least one member of the GOP is donning one again today.

"Unless it is controlled, this will be one of the most explosive, dangerous, deadly epidemics in modern times." - Lamar Alexander(R-TN) Oy! Okay granted, if ebola gains the transmissibility of pandemic influenze, then sure. Until then, this WILL NOT be any of those adjectives unless you are in West Africa. I feel kinship with West Africa--and West Africans--as I have been to The Gambia, Guinea, and Mali. I have had hand drumming teachers from all over the region. I am glad that we are finally getting off our hands and moving towards doing something. I met Lamar Alexander when he ran for the GOP presidential nomination in 1996. The man did not strike me as shriekingly hyperbolic, but neither did he strike me as a deep thinker.

This state is very weird. We only have a bit over a million residents, yet because of our first in the nation presidential primary, every four years we see the very strange group of individuals narcissistic enough to believe that they can lead this country. It remains ever the show.

On Non Edit: The first part of this post is a rambling mess. For that I am sorry. I would tidy it up, but I am not so inclined. I am tired(worked until 3 AM this morning, and was at breakfast at 6 AM), cold, and hungry. Really..I'm flagging.

Ebola..update.

The WHO and others missed the obvious. This bit from the article is just weird: "...Even as the bodies piled up, health officials were unable to identify the killer as Ebola, a virus never before seen in west Africa."

Health officials did not get tainted blood and/or organs tested is more accurate. Futhermore, in The Ivory Coast in 1994 a new strain of ebola(Tai Forest) infected one, was isolated, and the victim survived. This lack of geographical distribution excuse simply does not hold water.

Why did so many die before ebolavirus was isolated as the causative agent? All of the symptoms were there starting with patient zero. This is huge smokescreen..or CYA to some.

I should state presumably patient zero, as USAMRIID notes the following:

According to the publication’s authors, between 500 and 700 samples are submitted each year to the KGH Lassa Diagnostic Laboratory in Sierra Leone. Generally, only 30 to 40 percent of the samples test positive for Lassa fever, so the aim of this study was to determine which other viruses had been causing serious illnesses in the region.

Using assays developed at USAMRIID that detect the presence of IgM, an early protein produced by the body to ward off infection, the research team found evidence of dengue fever, West Nile, yellow fever, Rift Valley fever, chikungunya, Ebola, and Marburg viruses in the samples collected between 2006 and 2008.

There is an elephant in this room. Here is more detail. Sorry, but I have never bought the story of "no one could have known." USAMRIID knew, and even mentions the Tai Forest case in the liked to piece. When will people stop making the same mistakes regarding infectious diseases with animal vectors? From ticks to fruit bats, critters simply do not respect national boundaries. While I am on a pseudo-rant, ticks are not necessarily as slow moving as their own powers of ambulation permit. Ticks are after a blood meal. Many species will gladly take a meal from a migratory bird potentially spreading pathogens far outside of the disease's natural reservoir area. One need not even mention that bats are somewhat more mobile sans any hitchhiking than the evil tick.

I still do not understand today's GOP...fighting, fighting ebola....

GOP senator holding up Ebola money. Fucking James Inhofe..*sigh* This is good:

A top Senate Republican is holding up the White House's request for roughly $1 billion to fight Ebola in West Africa, according to a Wednesday report.

Senate Armed Services Committee ranking member James Inhofe (Okla.) allegedly wants more detail from the administration on how the request would impact the defense budget.

The funds are set to be "reprogrammed" from an account that would have been spent on the war in Afghanistan, according to The Associated Press, which first reported the hold.

Inhofe asked the Obama administration for more detail on how it would protect military personnel who come in contact with Ebola as part of the response effort, the AP says.

If true, the hold throws a wrench in the White House's plan to dramatically ramp up the fight against Ebola. Officials have warned that, without immediate "speed and scale," any efforts to curb the disease's spread will be quickly overtaken.

Unless the AP has gotten EVERYTHING about this wrong, Inhofe is indeed blocking moving forward. The saddest thing is that Inhofe is worried about diverting a whole billion dollars from the five hundred twenty-seven billion pentagon budget for 2014. Ya knows Jimmy, I think we can afford to send 1/527th of the official DoD budget to do some good in the world without any posturing. Duh-fuh? I really do not understand what has passed for conservatism since the days of Nixon. Nixon was a fatally flawed human being, but I could follow most of what he did. Reagan scared the Hell out of sane people, and the recycled Reaganites since then have been just plain obtuse.

I need pizza or something.

whyPhone 6 bends..and breaks!

I still don't understand the whyPhone phenonemon. Only days after putting the device in the hands of users, users are complaining about bending phones. Engadget gets downright surly linking to a Youtube vid that a user put their test model to the point of failure, but aluminum being aluminum, repeated stressors will achieve the same effect. Of course Apple is likely to offer a "Gusset and Rollcage" package for only $199.00 to keep your new phone from warping.

In all fairness, I am certain that I could break most any mobile, but I treat the things as truly utilitarian devices.

Apple has not promoted this as a "feature" as some users have twisted their week old devices into broken screen chic neckwear. Yep. If you flex the phone enough, the super duper 6 Plus screen--corundum and all--will break. Apple's cure? Screen repairs cost $109 for an iPhone 6 and $129 for the iPhone 6 Plus, in addition to a $6.95 shipping fee. If, however, you were smart enough to anticipate shattering your screen and paid the extra $99 AppleCare+ warranty fee, Apple will replace your screen for $79. I can see that this is going to be a huge issue. Apple should give out a free reinforcing device, or take the phones back at the customer's request.

AppleCare+ costs $75 more than I paid for my semi-unlocked LG l34C. Yes, I know it is listed as a StraightTalk only phone, but I was able to go with my preferred carrier without jailbreaking the little phone. My phone cannot do as much as much as an iPhone, but KitKat is pretty danged close. I have no NFC!!! But I paid $24.88 on a super duper deal.

Ebola contained in Nigeria and Senegal, WHO almost claims..and the oddity of the mid-term elections.

"Pretty much contained" in those two countries where there was but a single case in Senegal that traveled in form Guinea, and in Nigeria patient zero flew into the country via the usual route; in an airplane of some type.

So, the situation in Nigeria--which was really troubling--may have been extinguished, but in the three countries where the 2013-2014 ebola outbreak is still raging--Guinea, Sierra Leone, and Liberia--things are still getting worse from all available reports.

Being cognizant of West African geography does have value for all peoples everywhere.

I have NO idea if the three day lockdown in Sierra Leone will have lasting benefits, but hopefully the education and outreach that has been claimed will help to de-stigmatize the disease. The lockdown did increase the confirmed ebola case rate by 130 persons, with 39 suspected cases awaiting lab results.

Meanwhile in the DRC, the outbreak appears to be well controlled. Let us all hope that this is so.

I really need to say something political. I have no idea what the GOP platform is..it doesn't appear to be FOR anything. Does the GOP really sill believe that deregulation is the answer to anything? Well, anything that these people running for office claim deregulation will fix? Ideology is much like religion. Both philosophies stop the critical thinking process.

The Red States benefitthe most from governmental handouts, yet these are the very states least likely to vote in their best interests. I have always been baffled by my fellow Americans.

In the "all politics are local" theme, the GOP candidate for US senator(Scott Brown) moved to NH solely to run for another senate seat as he lost to Elizabeth Warren in his real state--the Commonwealth of Massachusetts. Polls ahow the race a toss up. This would not be possible with a fully functional, informed electorate. One does not reward failure to retain a job by handing them the same job.

I vote, but I am not represented by any political party in the US.

A Sunday Yuck!

Cop suffers minor injuries after colliding with a vehicle in a Dunkin Donuts parking lot then crashing his police SUV through the storefront.

I adore self-writing jokes.

You have to hand it to the cop. He could have stopped after smashing into another vehicle, but to nail the comic effect, he bashes through the storefront and suffers minor injuries. Bravo!

I just hope he was able to get his beloved doughnut fix.

Ebola Broken Record, and Climate Change

I will be updating my ebola cases and fatalities chart in 10 days. Until the worldwide response starts to have some success in lowering the case growth rate, the chart is going more vertical when case rate to time are tabulated. The 550K cases by the end of January 2015 seems unfathomable at present, but unless the trendline is broken..well, it certainly could occur.

This seems a very plausible model of the spread of ebola from East Africa to West africa. I would state that it is the model for the geographical spread of ebola disease, but much more wotk needs to be done before this can be firmly stated.

In related news, there are potentially many as yet unknown 'zoonotic' diseases that either have yet to infect humans, or have been mis-diagnosed--if diagnosed at all. This reminds me of the 'pre-history' of Marburg virus. There were doubtless cases around Mt. Elgon prior to Europeans naming the virus after a load of infected Grivet monkeys caused human infection in Marburg, Germany.

Emerging and re-emerging viruses are likely to be with humans as long as humans and viruses continue to inhabit this blue rock. As the density of humanity continues, and hence moves further into tropical areas with sufficient density to sustain chains of contagion, new and strange maladies are likely to find us a somewhat suitable host.

Okay, enough fun stuff..

MTV affirms climate change and gives one ammunition ro use against climate change deniers. It seems like lots of the same old stuff to me, but it may help others. Perhaps a few months ago I read in the 'comments' section of a good piece on global climate change that the US state of Indiana just went through a very cold winter negating mountains of data supporting climate change. *huge eyeroll*

Climate is a complex issue. For instance, while Arctic sea ice continues to shrink, Antarctic sea ice levels are on the increase. Of course sea ice does not effect sea levels in a really substantive way. Sea ice does affect albedo(reflectivity), but I cannot comment on just how much impact this has on micro-climates or macro-climate. I am curious to know at least some of the mathematical underpinnings, but I have nothing today. In the West Antarctic interior, glacier melt--which most certainly effects sea levels--is in "Catastrophic Collapse".

Read Real Climate. Know Real stuff. Gavin Schmidt knocks down the arguments by analogy in this post. Gavin's Wikipedia Page

I hope to live long enough to see anthropogenic climate change deniers tossed in with moon landing deniers, Holocaust deniers, etc. I am not taking bets.

Truly sad...Sure, it is yet another ebola post

A team of health care workers in Guinea were murdered as they tried to raise awareness about the deadly Ebola virus.

I know that ebola has a huge stigma issue surrounding it, but this seems way over the top for human behavior. There is much fear and loathing in the ebola stricken areas of West Africa.

Bloomberg is reporting that that the worst case scenario for ebola cases in West Africa could be more than 500,000 cases.

That is very, very bad.

This is far, far worse.

From a tin-foil hat website: VIROLOGIST: 'IT’S TOO LATE, EBOLA WILL KILL 5 MILLION’The article cites Canadian researchers as stating that that "the virus has likely gone airborne."

Surely this can take place under specific conditions. In Reston, VA it was strongly suspected that ebola Reston(EBOVR) was at least partly transmitted via the aerosol route. Since EBOVR is almost a twin to EBOV(formerly ebola Zaire), it doesn't take a virologist to at least wonder that the aerosol transmission route is at least possible.

That is one of the problems with emergent diseases. 40 years of study with--until now--relatively few cases does not produce enough data to state things like transmission routes in all situations with authority. Of course the virus is under selective pressure as well. This is not a directed event.

Ebola could almost as easily mutate into a form asymptomatic to humans, as becoming more transmissible. The selective differences may be quite small, but a drift towards higher transmissibility would lead to the virus replicating more easily. Hence, those virii that randomly came equipped with a higher transmissibility rate would tend to out-multiply in the host organisms and lead to higher and higher levels of itself. Natural selection in action. Not the most cheery thought on a Friday, but one that bears keeping in the back of one's head.

I am deeply curious as to what those 395 mutations found thus far in the current outbreak are capable. Anyone can do selective pressure algebra. The key is to have a clear sense of the value of one trait versus another. I cannot give you those figures for ebola virus, as I do not know them. It is really this simple. Sure I picked the Peppered Moth example. It is a good one as the two colorforms pre-existed the selective pressure(s). Population genetics are--in this case--very simple.

For further reading, I recommend Sean B. Carroll's The Making of the Fittest: DNA and the Ultimate Forensic Record of Evolution. Carroll lays out some simple examples of selective pressures, and the math is nothing more than basic algebra. It is not like attempting to digest S. Wright, R.A. Fisher and/or J.B.S. Haldane's mathematical treatments that really ushered in the 'modern synthesis.' Sean B. Carroll's other fabulous book: Endless Forms Most Beautiful: The New Science of Evo Devo is a must read. I should note that I hold S.B. Carroll in the highest regard. While he is not a prolific author, his books enable most any curious reader to peer into very modern biology with wit and insight; and he never talks down to his audience. I have read four of his six works published for the non-scientist, and he never fails to educate and amuse. His books are, if anything, too quickly over!

Why I was out, the US responds to ebola

Finally. The US is committing 3,000 US troops to the beleaguered region and just what the US military will likely be doing in West Africa. Before anyone yells that I chose a 'liberal rag' to link to with a synopsis of just what the US troops will be doing to combat(pardon the pun) the ebola epidemic, I looked at a dozen or so pieces, and this one was by far the most detailed and hence likely to be the most accurate.

Meanwhile, the WHO is asking for roughly a billion additional dollars to keep the ebola epidemic in West Africa contained to 'tens of thousands'.

Recall my case rates at varying levels of individual contagion rates? Well, a mathematical epidemologist is stating that the current Ebola outbreak 'out of all proportion' and severity cannot be predicated. Since the piece is meant to be openly shared, here it is--line breaks added manually:

Contact: Tom Frew
a.t.frew@warwick.ac.uk
44-024-767-75910
University of Warwick
@warwickuni

Ebola outbreak 'out of all proportion' and severity cannot be predicated

A mathematical model that replicates Ebola outbreaks can no longer be used to ascertain the eventual scale of the current epidemic, finds research conducted by the University of Warwick.

Dr Thomas House, of the University's Warwick Mathematics Institute, developed a model that incorporated data from past outbreaks that successfully replicated their eventual scale.

The research, titled Epidemiological Dynamics of Ebola Outbreaks and published by eLife, shows that when applying the available data from the ongoing 2014 outbreak to the model that it is, according to Dr House, "out of all proportion and on an unprecedented scale when compared to previous outbreaks".

Dr House commented: "If we analyse the data from past outbreaks we are able to design a model that works for the recorded cases of the virus spreading and can successfully replicate their eventual size. The current outbreak does not fit this previous pattern and, as a result, we are not in a position to provide an accurate prediction of the current outbreak".

Chance events, Dr House argues, are an essential factor in the spread of Ebola and many other contagious diseases. "If we look at past Ebola outbreaks there is an identifiable way of predicting their overall size based on modelling chance events that are known to be important when the numbers of cases of infection are small and the spread is close to being controlled".

Chance events can include a person's location when they are most infectious, whether they are alone when ill, the travel patterns of those with whom they come into contact or whether they are close to adequate medical assistance.

The Warwick model successfully replicated the eventual scale of past outbreaks by analysing two key chance events: the initial number of people and the level of infectiousness once an epidemic is underway.

"With the current situation we are seeing something that defies this previous pattern of outbreak severity. As the current outbreak becomes more severe, it is less and less likely that it is a chance event and more likely that something more fundamental has changed", says Dr House.

Discussing possible causes for the unprecedented nature of the current outbreak, Dr House argues that there could be a range of factors that lead it to be on a different scale to previous cases;

"This could be as a result of a number of different factors: mutation of virus, changes in social contact patterns or some combination of these with other factors. It is implausible to explain the current situation solely through a particularly severe outbreak within the previously observed pattern".

In light of the research findings and the United Nations calling for a further $1bn USD to tackle the current outbreak, Dr House says that "Since we are not in a position to quantify the eventful scale of this unprecedented outbreak, the conclusion from this study is not to be complacent but to mobilise resources to combat the disease."

Link to study .pdf You will need to remember some maths, and plug in some new variables to wrap your head firmly around the equations.

Since I started following and commenting on the outbreak, I have attempted to share with my gentle reader only the best articles, opinion pieces, and models on the weblog. In my social circles--and more than a couple of people I see on at a weekly basis have field experience in other disease outbreaks--I am seen as the local database concerning the ebola epidemic. I can perhaps appreciate the models better than my medical friends, but I know nothing of what must be populations in literally morbid fear. Nurse Lauren(US Army Sgt.) was in Afghanistan prior to 09.11.2001 aiding in the fight against a tick-borne fever: Crimean-Congo hemorrhagic fever. The fear among the people was extreme. One can only imagine how much more dire things are in--say, Monrovia--today.

New ebola case rate based on a new model, an ebola recap, and EEE in New Hampshire.

The Ebola epidemic affecting West Africa is predicted to last a further 12 to 18 months, according to U.S. scientists. Things are looking ungood. Sorry about the source. If you cannot be bothered to proofread your headline, that leaves much else suspect. I will look for confirmation form other sources. Here is the source where much of the new data was mined. 20k cases per month? I didn't know that Thomas Geisbert was considered an ebola expert. He used to be an electron microscopist at USAMRIID.

I saved all the NYT stuff locally. I am a paid subscriber, so let us hope that I do not get fined--or worse--for having a full local copy of the piece for reference.

That's the ebola recap.

New Hampshire now has two confirmed cases of human EEE.

The news comes just three days after health officials confirmed the second human case of EEE in New Hampshire; that person lives in Hopkinton. An adult in Conway also tested positive for EEE last month.

The New Hampshire Department of Health and Human Services has also confirmed EEE infection in six mosquito batches and a mule this season. So far, there has been no indication of the West Nile virus in New Hampshire.

Infected mosquitoes can transmit EEE to humans through bites. The species testing positive in Portsmouth primarily feeds on birds, but will occasionally bite humans.

EEE can create symptoms including fever, headache, stiff neck and sore throat. Severe cases can cause significant brain damage or death. There is no human vaccine or cure for EEE, making the rare but dangerous disease difficult to treat, but there are ways to prevent bites from infected mosquitoes.

It is likely that there are many many more mosquitoes in NH that are carrying the virus. It is troubling that this being a state where outdoor activities are the rule that permethrin is not the go to agent to repel most insects and those small evil arachnids we call ticks. I had 40% DEET applied to my brush boots minutes(say 5) before a tick ambled right across the toe of my boot. Since I started using permethrin as my personal "bug" repellent, I have had no issues with ticks, mosquitoes, or anything else. I do not apply it to my skin. My outdoor gear gets dosed and allowed to dry before use. Permethrin lasts through a couple of washings, and for at least six weeks in tick central.

It wasn't just me..the Olive Garden IS trying to KILL ME!

Details here. Well, the Olive Garden is attempting to kill its customers in slo-mo. I am not a patron of any restaurant chain.

Heck, being a New Hampshirite, it is almost sacrilegious to pass on Dunkin Donuts. Those things are for other people.

I am going to nosh. Perhaps I can dig up something sciencey whilst I dine.

Ebola transmission rate in current outbreak, similar to previous outbreaks..

If there is any positive news in the West African ebola outbreak it is that an analysis of transmission rates are consistent with those of previous outbreaks in central Africa. The reason that this is not bad news is that given the 350-400 mutations of abola virus found in the current epidemic, the same routes of transmission are likely the only ones occurring.

Meanwhile, in the DRC......

the WHO reports a doubling of the case number to 62, with a current case fatality rate(CFR) of 58%. Of course, it is not known just how many of those infected are still in danger of being added to the CFR.

If you read the first linked to article, you will not that the individual transmission rate climbed from 1.4 to 1.7 in a month. That may not sound like a huge difference, but over time the numbers continually diverge. Do the simple math over say 20 generations of infection. The small difference in the starting condition leads to a huge difference in outcomes. Additionally, since the infection rate ramped up dramatically in but one month, it is unlikely to stay at the same rate. The current infection rate may be higher or lower. The simple month long growth in infection rate is--at least on the surface--very troubling.

I did a straight line analysis of the two transmission rates to 19 generations after patient zero. Here are the results for a 1.4 transmission rate:

1 2nd 1.4 3rd 1.96 4th 2.77 5th 3.84 6th 5.38 7th 7.53 8th 10.55 9th 14.77 10th 20.68 11th 29.0 12th 40.6 13th 56.84 14th 79.5 15th 111.3 16th 155.8 17th 218.1 18th 305.3 19th 427.5 20th 598.5

And for a 1.7 transmission rate:

1 2nd 1.7 3rd 2.9 4th 8.4 5th 14.3 6th 24.31 7th 41.3 8th 119.4 9th 195.5 10th 332.35 11th 565 12th 960.5 13th 1632.9 14th 2776 15th 4719 16th 8022 17th 13637 18th 23183 19th 39411 20th 67000

That is quite sobering. Oh, the math isn't perfect as I rounded some figures lest I get lots of noise on the right side of the decimal point.

This simple math applies to interest rates as well. That's all it really is. Of course epidemics do not progress like this forever. I just wanted to illustrate the very basic data as pointed to in this article.

I am just a lay lackey. My little exercise does point to a potentially very bad outcome should the infection rate continue to progress at the higher rate.

It is 09.11.2001 all over again in the US

Why oh why do we have to be reminded year and again about the tragic events of 09.11.2001? The attacks resulted in less than 3,000 fatalities. One is 6.5 times more likely to be killed by excessive temperatures than by a terrorist attack. Cops are roughly 9 times more likely to kill you than terrorists. I know that thinking rationally is not a national sport, but as a country I think that once every decade is enough to commemorate 09.11.2001. One can call me Un-American, but I am not the one bringing up the greatest failure of national security on these shores up every year.

In other Un-American news, that duck guy apparently spilled a bunch of nonsense to some other ultra-reactionary type, but you get no link. The self-aggrandizing duck plucker gets no links to his god derived bullshit. Let us face a very puzzling fact about this or that god fellow. There has never been any independently verifiable evidence that even hints at "his" existence. Yet the cult of believers seems to go on undiminished. I will let you in a bit of what duck guy allegedly said... he said that AIDS among other things are this maddeningly difficult to pin down god bloke's revenge against homosexual behavior. If this is indeed true, why dopes god hate hemophiliacs, chimpanzees, hetero couples that happen to get AIDS, and other groups? Idiots gonna keep on bein' idiots.

Is that duck show still on? I do not know. I am all for free speech, but I am not for error riddled free speech. Unfortunately, we have to take the bad with the worse in the USofA.

One thing ends(waiting for the whyPhone) and one thing is really only beginning(the ebola outbreaks)

Apple released details and pricing of the the various whyPhone 6 yesterday. It's odd, my $30 LG Android phone w/KitKat has a microSD slot--it even came with a paltry 4GB card installed--Apple still does not offer expandability in any whyPhone. My $30 expandable phone is also unlocked. A 64GB iPhone (not the special model, but whyPhone Lite) is $300. I snagged a 64GB class 10 card for $28. Is my phone as good as the iPhione 6 Lite? I dunno. My phone is pretty fast, it is unlocked, and now sports 72GB of memory for nearly 90% less.

I should add that my phone is not jailbroken either. I am sure Apple will sell lots of them. I hope so, as two semiconductor companies in which I have a vested interest in are whyPhone chip suppliers.

No one I know is pining for the whyWatch.

That may not be saying much as the people I discuss such matters with are timepiece purists. It looks like a $350 novelty.

Time claims that we "What We Know About Ebola Hasn’t Changed Much".

I think it more accurate to state that Time does not know much about ebola. Even given that ebola first entered the lexicon in 1976, much more is known about ebola than My Pet Illness: Borreliosis.

Heck, the Russians know enough about ebola to have reportedly have recombined ebola and Smallpox(variola major) into a bioweapon. It has been reported that this macabre weapon was discarded as it did not increase the fatality rate of one of the agents. The hyper virulent India-1 strain of smallpox is really scary.

I know, insertion of genes into at least some pox viruses can be done by any real researcher in the field of virology...and even by people with less training as once one is shown the technique, it is pretty mechanical.

Time does have newer case rates than has been widely reported. Again, in this case I really loathe being correct about the trajectory of the outbreak. It is now breathtaking, and getting worse with each passing day.

I need to steer this boat back on course.

Time is certainly aware that ebola research has been going on at USAMRIID since 1976<<--that article is a smasher!

I am sure that this is a real page turner: Filoviruses: A Compendium of 40 Years of Epidemiological, Clinical, and Laboratory Studies. The pub. is dated to 2007, and lots more has been done since then. A blurb:

The author details the history of all Marburg and Ebola outbreaks during the 40 years from the discovery of Marburg in 1967 to the latest Marburg outbreak in 2007 in Uganda, including difficult-to-find information. The clinical and pathologic presentations of Ebola and Marburg diseases in human and animal models contain a substantial number of black and white and color illustrations. With the range of the Ebola and Marburg viruses still unknown and the search for the animal reservoirs ongoing, antibody serosurveys in humans and animals have been conducted in most countries in Africa and in the Philippines after the Ebola Reston outbreaks; Kuhn dedicates a long chapter to this subject. All animal species tested are presented in tables but, more interestingly, also indexed at the end of the book. This information is particularly valuable for ecologists and epidemiologists searching for the reservoir of filoviruses.

Kuhn explains the structure and replication of the filoviruses, with the actual role of each gene of the virus from entry into the target cells to production of infectious virus. He lists diagnosis techniques and experimental treatments of the Marburg and Ebola diseases, from the traditional healers to the molecular antisenses RNA approaches. In the past 10 years, preexposure and postexposures vaccinations have resulted in tremendous progress in schedules, routes of administration, and more importantly, understanding mechanisms of action. Lack or efficacy of inactivated and live-attenuated constructs is reviewed of all testing in available animal models.

The CDC has 2,880 articles that at least mention ebola in just the Emerging Infectious Diseases module of the website. As much as Time may not acknowledge it, USAMRIID, the CDC, the WHO, and others have full time ebola researchers. USAMRIID, the CDC, and the WHO had all sent teams to Africa by 1980 in the midst of outbreaks. One has to wonder if Time's writers read The Hot Zone, and thought research on ebola stopped in 1994. I should note here that Preston's book is so antiquated as to be of nearly no use in understanding the current state of ebola research.

No doubt there will be lots of really awful books about the current African outbreaks.

One really good treatment of the outbreaks may be written sans Preston's anthropomorphisms.

What is really needed for a lay audience--and this includes me--is a treatment on a par with Siddhartha Mukherjee's treatment of cancers as found in: The Emperor of All Maladies: A Biography of Cancer or John M. Barry's The Great Influenza: The Story of the Deadliest Pandemic in History. Mukherjee's book is a really fantastic book; as a book. Batty's book is for readers that want the whole story. It could be excruciatingly boring to some people as much of the book is dedicated to the sociology behind how modern medicine came to be practiced. If you want it all, Barry's exhaustive work is a gem.

As I typed those last few sentences out I can see a need for both types of books. Should they be penned, I will own both.

Lyme incurable in some patients?

Chronic Lyme(we call it Borreliosis) patient runs out of medical options.

All those patients telling tales of not being cured of Borreliosis just might be ahead of the medical community.

There are lots of things that run counter to my understanding of Borreliosis in the article.

The EM rash rate is listed as 30%. I still believe that roughly 70% of infected persons get the EM rash.

Then there is this:

For Childs, her situation was different. She was bitten by a tick in Aptos at age 5 and diagnosed eight years later. Since then, she suffers from daily migraines, nausea, fatigue, body aches, joint pain and muscle aches.
Childs went through five years of treatment. She did three years of oral antibiotics and 18 months of intravenous antibiotics. After none of the treatments worked, she was told that her case of Lyme disease has no cure.

"Because I've done every treatment possible I'm planning on being sick for the rest of my life," Childs said.

The current thinking is that the lasting effects of Borreliosis likely stem from an autoimmune response. BUT, as we have seen time and again, the current thinking turns out to be grossly in error. The Borreliosis goalposts are in nearly constant flux. The medical care system in the US is all about cost containment. Borreliosis is looking like the lo-boil plague of the early 21st century. The approach to sufferers and research has been a long series of foot-dragging exercises. It is almost a world wide phenomenon. Africa has ricksettia, and Borreliosis has found a home on that continent as well. So, that leaves Australia in denial about Borreliosis on that continent..it is only s matter of time before the Aussies get in the game.

I think that Antarctica is likely to remain free of Borreliosis. Perhaps I can catch a ride on a Norwegian ship headed that way.

ON EDIT: I just started rereading Endurance: Shackleton’s Incredible Voyage. It is as good as I recall. I read it with a proper British accent ;) Highly recommended.

My ebola break is over..

I am simply going to toss out three things concerning ebola today, as I am under time pressure.

The WHO may have a hand in understimating the CFR in the current West African outbreak. The WHO is moving towards a more accurate methodology of measuring the CFR...although given all of the health crises around this blue rock, it may be some time before a more accurate model is effectively used.

Ebola in Liberis is far worse than yet reported, and--if you can believe this--far worse than imagined. When officials at the WHO use phrasing like "exponential increase"(of future cases) and "intense virus transmission" things are likely very grim. Even more grim news about Liberia's likely future ebola caseload here.

Obama finally sorta kinda makes the right call on ebola. As I previously posted, I was pretty sure that the US would not take a leading role until after the mid-term elections in the US. As part of Obama's pledge to combat The Outbreak he oddly quipped this: "If we don't make that effort now, and this spreads not just through Africa, but other parts of the world, there's the prospect then that the virus mutates, it becomes more easily transmittable, and then it could be a serious danger to the United States." So, it seems like a mid-term election ploy after all.

Obama's statement about the threat to the US requires a lot more comment, but I have to be off. Oh, there are lots of good quotes in the Obama piece. It is definitely worth one's time to watch, listen, and read.

M.N. proposed? Good for her!

Martina Navratilova proposed at US Open today, Good on her! I hope that this pair bonding lasts a good while.

I never really discuss my views on LGBTH(the "H" is for hetero) issues. I s'pose it just never occurs me to comment on such issues. If two--or more--humans are of the age of consent, and these humans wish to bring it to the level of matrimony, I am good with that. Of course being a materialistic human with a bent towards an anarchistic political view, it is too natural a fit for me not to don.

I am not much of a sports fan, but Martina N. really transcends the whole sports legend title. She seems such a fine human being.

That said, I adored watching M.N and Steffi Graf battle in the late 1980s. They are giants.

In ebola news, the NYT has an editorial that distills just what I have gone on about this summer.. and adds "Given the W.H.O.’s weaknesses, the White House ought to consider whether the United States should take the lead."

Here is some speculation as to why the US has yet to lead on this issue. Obama is now an embattled president. I feel pretty confident in stating that Obama would like to lead on this issue, but cannot at present. There are essentially two reasons why he will not lead until perhaps later this year. Half of the answer can be divined from the last sentence.

As much as it only makes perfect sense for the US to lead on this issue, things are not likely to change until after the mid-term elections.

The apple cart is on three wheels as it is, and who knows what would happen if Obama was to do something more regarding the West African ebola outbreak? That this is even a potential issue, is truly a shame.

The other part of equation is inexorably linked to that which was just stated. If Obama moved forward with real zeal regarding the West African ebola outbreak, one can almost be certain that skin color would rear its fucking ugly heed. Oh, it would not be shouted, but racial undertones would almost certainly be spawned by those petty minded fools that we have for pundits.

Really, Obama's second term has almost all been about race when one removes the chaff. I cannot figure out why people do not seem to care for the ACA. Okay, if one sets aside stupidity, incestuous coupling, and not having any command whatever about the real facts, THEN I only know of one reason why people are upset about the ACA. It is a color issue.

I do not know if it has even been brought up but everything wrong with Iraq--from IEDs to ISIS--are squarely braindead Bush's deals.

That Obama's polling numbers are so low are only due to some kind of weird collective amnesia. There seem to be no limits to the paths to stupidity, but few to the light of knowledge.

I cannot fathom why today's GOP holds Reagan is such regard. Ronald Reagan was very likely the worst president of the 20th century. I can do it by the numbers if I must. It just gets really ugly for Saint Ronnie when I do so.

Shit! A mostly political rant.

Sorry 'bout that. I am off to hang my head in the corner. Honestly, I am sorry.